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Analysis of current mechanical industry economic operation and industry status
Some views on the current situation:
(1) Short-term worries outweigh long-range worries. First, the speed and effect of structural adjustment is slower than market changes. Second, it is difficult for the investment in the troika to increase significantly, while there will be no major change in export, and the pace of consumption is heavy.
(2) The three-pole world market pattern has been broken, and the layout of global manufacturing industry has undergone profound changes. The manufacturing industry in developed countries has returned, resource-dependent countries have diversified production, and new developing countries have vigorously developed labor-intensive industries. It is a foregone conclusion that there is interception before and pursuers after.
(3) China has a serious surplus of medium - and low-end manufacturing capacity, which is difficult to solve and costly to solve.
(4) The labor market is distorted, the cost of ordinary labor is constantly rising, and there is a lack of innovative talents. There are many difficulties in enterprise management.
The machinery industry will spend 2013 in a more severe situation.
Economic operation of machinery industry from January to September 2013
Due to the debt crisis in Europe and the United States economic recovery fatigue caused by the global recession, speeding up the structural contradiction of machinery industry in China, but after years of adjustment, the risk resistance ability of the mechanical industry, and in 2013 began to reflect: 1 ~ 9 month production growth fell back is still obvious, economic running faces multiple difficulties, but years of recovery to stabilize, a rare positive growth, profit enterprise orders increased. Second, the impact of rising labor, energy and environmental costs, as well as excessively high financing costs, which are common to enterprises, is also weakening. New industries are springing up. Third, in the case of sharp decline in profits, some new growth points of enterprises are in the growth stage of transformation and upgrading. Recently, the trend of production and sales and profits has shown signs of gradual improvement. The decline in the growth of production and sales has gradually stabilized. Profits have maintained positive growth for four consecutive months.
1. The growth rate of industrial added value rose to the fifth among all industrial sectors
From January to September 2013, the national industry grew by 9.2% and the machinery industry by 9.9%. (In September, the national industry and machinery industry grew by 10.20% and 12.8% respectively.) Among the 12 industrial industries, the growth rate of the machinery industry ranked the first in 2010, the fifth in 2011 and the tenth in 2012 (only higher than the petrochemical industry and power industry). In terms of the growth trend of the added value in the first few months of 2013, the rebound was strong: 9.1% from January to April, 9.3% from January to May, 9.2% from January to June, 9.3% from January to July, 9.5% from January to August, and 9.9% from January to September.
2. The growth rate of industrial output declined considerably compared with the same period last year, but the growth rate gradually stabilized month by month
From January to September in 2013, the machinery industry has achieved a total of 14.5 trillion yuan in main business revenue, up 12.60% year on year, basically flat with the growth rate of 2012 (9.80%), which has declined sharply. But the increase has leveled off.
3. Increased industry differentiation
Among the 13 sub-industries, the main business of 8 sub-industries has achieved double-digit growth. Construction machinery, cultural and office industries have negative growth. The sub-industries such as automobile, internal combustion engine, agricultural machinery, instrument, petrochemical general machinery and so on have relatively good situation. At the beginning of the year, the growth rate of the automobile industry was quite stable, but since then, it has accelerated month by month with a relatively good development trend. Construction machinery, machine tools, electricians and other sub-industries are still not optimistic, not only the growth rate of the decline is large, the downturn time is relatively long; It is expected that the fourth quarter and next year the pressure is still relatively large.
4. Output of nearly half of the major products fell
From January to September in 2013, 37 kinds of output of 64 kinds of main products increased year-on-year, accounting for 57.8%; The yield of 27 species decreased, accounting for 42.19%. The decline in output of less than half the product is rare in recent years. This also reflects from one side this year the machinery industry economic operation situation of the downturn, but from January to September than January to August has improved.
The production and marketing situation of some typical products is as follows:
Among power generation equipment, photovoltaic and wind power continue to be depressed, with orders falling sharply; Thermal power is basically flat. Although orders for UHV products for power transmission and transformation equipment have increased, many enterprises are still suffering due to serious overcapacity.
The situation of the automobile industry is good, but the cargo vehicle is still weak; The production and marketing situation of motorcycles is generally depressed; In the construction machinery, excavators, loaders and other representative products have declined sharply, but the compaction machinery increased rapidly.
The overall demand for machine tool products has decreased significantly, and most enterprises have insufficient tasks. From January to September in 2013, the total output of metal cutting machine tools in the machine tool industry was 538,900 units, with an overall decrease of 9.36%, which continued to show a downward trend. The situation of some large enterprises was severe. Orders have increased since July, and the market demand for complete sets and high-tech products has increased markedly.
Large and medium-sized tractors, corn harvesting machinery and other high-end products are booming production and sales; Refrigeration compressor, mining equipment, environmental protection instruments and other rapid growth.
The growth rate of total profit declined much faster than that of production and sales, but it showed a slow upward trend month by month
From January to September in 2013, the total profit of the machinery industry was 924.3 billion yuan (24.13% of the total industry), with a year-on-year increase of 13.39% and 0.1 percentage point higher than that from January to August. The growth rate of profit was 0.9 percentage points higher than the growth rate of production and sales in the same period (12.31%). At the beginning of the year, the profit showed a positive growth, which was not large. However, since then, the profit showed a rapid growth month by month, which has achieved positive growth for eight consecutive months (5.81% from January to February, 7.73% from January to May, 12.29% from January to June, and 13.29% from January to August). Among them, the automobile industry accounted for 40% of the industry, driving the profit growth of machinery industry by 5.82 percentage points.
6. The growth rate of foreign exchange earned by exports decreased significantly
From January to September in 2013, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry was US $495.3 billion, up by 0.98% year on year. The export volume was US $274.5 billion, up by 4.11%, and the import volume was US $220.8 billion, down by 2.67%. From the analysis of the overall situation of import and export, the current domestic demand has fallen sharply, and the supply of machinery and equipment market exceeds the demand, which is consistent with the situation reflected by the production and sales, orders and other indicators. At the same time, due to the slow recovery of the world economy and weak foreign demand, the export growth rate did not change significantly compared with the same period last year, but the import and export surplus increased to 53.7 billion US dollars, equivalent to 93.89% of the whole year of last year.
7. Accounts receivable are high, working capital is tight, and the phenomenon of payment arrears has not changed
From January to September 2013, the accounts receivable of the machinery industry reached 2.9 trillion yuan, increasing by 13.73% year-on-year on the basis of the high growth rate for many years, which was 1.48 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the industry's main business income (12.25%) in the same period. Some industries and enterprises are even more serious, especially electricians and electrical appliances, heavy mining, construction machinery, machine tools and other industries. According to the key contact enterprises, the main reason is that the user is short of money, unable to pay on time. Affected by the reduction of user investment and monetary policy, some major customers are in financial shortage and have slowed down the project schedule, extended the installation and debugging of equipment, and reduced the transfer pressure of the proportion of advance payment. As a result, it is more difficult for enterprises to recover the payment for production equipment, and the proportion of acceptance bill increases, leading to greater pressure of capital advance payment.
Accounts receivable is an important part of current assets of enterprises. High revenue growth fell back, accounts receivable, financial expenses, especially the interest payments continued rapid growth, and other factors, since the year before, industrial machinery enterprise current assets growth rate has dropped, the current assets growth rate is as high as 32% by the end of 2010, from January to September in 2013 had fallen to 10.58%, compared with the same period last year, fell back by 8.7%. Since the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2011, the growth rate of accounts receivable in the machinery industry is significantly higher than the growth rate of current assets. The proportion of accounts receivable in current assets is also rising rapidly, and the turnover rate of current assets is decreasing year-on-year, which shows that the current situation of the flow of capital in the machinery industry is increasingly tight.
8. The high-end equipment market is still heavily impacted by imports
Although since this year mechanical industry significantly faster than the import export growth, rapidly rising trade surplus every month, but further analysis found that the trade surplus mainly comes from the processing trade, mid-range 1 - mechanical industry $53.7 billion trade surplus in September, but our country mechanical industry and high-end mechanical equipment powerhouses Germany, Japan's trade deficit is $18.2 billion and $12.4 billion respectively, thus, mid-range beenrunning large mechanical processing trade hides the huge deficit of high-end machinery and equipment, domestic machinery market oversupply situation mainly mid-range machinery and equipment, and high-end equipment market is still faced with the fury of the imported products. At present, the domestic policies clearly encourage the import of advanced equipment, which will inevitably divert the market orders of the domestic high-end equipment manufacturing industry, which is contrary to the industrial policy orientation of the country repeatedly clear development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry, and there is a lack of strong coordination between relevant policies. This situation is not conducive to the cultivation and growth of the domestic high-end equipment manufacturing industry.
9. The changing international environment presents profound challenges
Externally, the crisis is not only reflected in the slowdown of the US economic recovery and the impact of the ongoing European debt crisis on the world economy, but more seriously reflected in the transformation of the economic development strategies of Western developed countries represented by the US and the change of their attitude towards China. For example, in 2011, the United States released the Advanced Manufacturing Alliance Plan, highlighting the importance of advanced manufacturing and attacking China for this. At the same time, due to the international economic downturn in recent years and China's economic growth is relatively strong, which makes the developed country enterprises to increase the layout of China, with China to compete for the nearby high-end equipment market strength, domestic high-end manufacturing enterprises growth market is facing more intense foreign manufacturers crowded out. At the same time, the famous foreign multinational companies are implementing the downward strategy, occupying the traditional market with the middle and low grade products of well-known brands, and intend to completely block the manufacturing industry in China. Automobile and machine tools are especially obvious.
In short, the development of the current machinery industry can be said to be internal and external contradictions overlap, the challenge is very severe. All kinds of phenomena show that the "Tenth Five Year Plan", "Eleventh Five Year Plan" as the high-speed growth period has passed, the machinery industry is turning into a significant slowdown but more the pursuit of quality of the stable development period, is expected next year the machinery industry will continue to undergo the test of transformation.
Machinery industry have the growth rate of current basic dip, continues to decline in the future small fluctuations may still exist, but the situation gradually stabilised, national macroeconomic regulation and control policy has turned to sustaining economic growth, modest than optimistic is expected by the end of the industrial economy picks up momentum will continue, the year is expected to present "decline stabilised in the initial stage and later recovered slightly. The growth rate of industry production and sales is expected to be around 12% in 2013. Profit growth is expected to be around 14%; Export growth is expected to be around 5%.
Analysis of current situation of the industry
1. The overall evaluation of the current situation of China's machinery industry
After adjustment, optimization and combination, the overall level of China's machinery industry has been further improved in 2013, which is mainly manifested in the following seven aspects:
First, the mastery of core technologies has been continuously improved, from 6% in the early 1990s to 30% ~ 35%.
Second, the continuous development of new varieties, the application of new technology, so that the application of products continue to improve and expand; From ordinary to key, from low-end to medium-high-end development. Some products are close to or reach the world advanced level.
Third, the reliability and consistency of products have been improved, and the gap between the international level has been reduced.
Fourth, basic technology research has achieved certain results, to a certain extent to strengthen the industrialization support.
Fifth, the localization rate of major key products and the increasing proportion of domestic supply fully prove that the equipment provided by our country in major projects and major tasks has been recognized by users in terms of technology and quality.
Sixth, a number of institutions for technological innovation, quality testing, standardization and revision have been set up, and a technological innovation system and service platform for the equipment manufacturing industry have initially taken shape.
Seventh, the bid acceptance rate of industry and national standards has been raised from 80% to 85%.
2. Product status analysis in key areas
China's power transmission and transformation equipment manufacturing industry has successfully researched and developed the world's advanced level of complete sets of equipment. Compared with the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the technical level of many products in the transmission projects, such as the ultra-high voltage "one million AC" and "±800" DC, which were put into operation successively during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, has reached the leading level in the world and is now in stable operation. The second generation of nuclear power pump valve domestic production rate of more than 70%. The second line of west-east gas transmission project has been completed, and the localization rate of key components has reached more than 70%. China has developed at the three gorges hydropower units of 700 mw mixed-flow, millions of mw ultra-supercritical thermal power unit, millions of key equipment, 1 ~ 2 550 mw pressurized water reactor nuclear power 250 mm large sheet of cold and hot tandem mill, 4 ~ 5 000 500 mm broad plate mill, one million tons of ethylene device of centrifugal compressor, 60000 cubic meters of large air separation equipment, 2, 000 tons of hot wall hydrogenation reactor and five-axis linkage CNC machine tools and other major equipment localization rate of major achievements, its technical performance reached the international leading level or cash, Our ability to provide technology and equipment for the development of the national economy, infrastructure and national defense continued to grow. The equivalent availability coefficient EAF of domestic power generation equipment has reached the international advanced level.
(2) the field of basic machinery and basic parts at present China's popular CNC machine tool production has formed a scale, the product technical performance indicators are more mature, has a certain competitiveness in the international market. At present, we can supply networked, integrated and flexible CNC machine tools. At the same time, we have begun to enter the ranks of the world's precision CNC airport producing countries. The whole industry is gradually becoming mature. In 2011, 04 special projects in quality have been effective. China's independent research and development of CNC system performance has reached more than 15,000 hours, the average trouble-free working time of the whole machine reached about 900 hours. The innovation capacity of enterprises has been further enhanced, and the market competitiveness has been enhanced. China's production of CNC machine tools of some enterprises lean scale production continues to expand, the application of information technology is not enhanced, in order to meet the needs of users have made great progress.
In the field of basic parts, the independent innovation of the company has achieved fruitful results: high-precision senkimir rolling mill bearings, large rolling machine matching bearings, oversize rotary plate bearings have replaced the imports, filling the domestic gap; Luoyang LYC production of 16.7 tons, diameter of 6.07 meters of rotary bearings, broke the monopoly of international multinational companies, so that China's oversize bearing manufacturing technology and the international level is close to a step; New breakthroughs have been made in the key technologies of high precision, high performance and high reliability of the seven kinds of "Shenqi" rocket bearings of the Harbin axis.
(3) auto industry during the period of "11th five-year plan", China's automobile products constantly enrich, technical content had obvious promotion, enterprise management mode and the ability to have greatly increased, the overall product quality meet the consumption demand of the masses of the people, and had the comprehensive promotion core competitiveness of the automobile products, product quality, service quality, can meet the basic needs of the user step by step. The continuous evaluation results of the China Association for Quality on the automobile industry show that the customer satisfaction has increased from 71 points in 2002 to 78 points in 2012, showing a trend of increasing year by year.
(4) the agricultural machinery sector The quality situation of agricultural machinery industry in China has improved greatly in recent years, on behalf of the product technology quality of combine harvester, large and medium-sized tractor improve rapidly in recent years, large and medium-sized tractor standalone power mainly from the late 90 s, 80 - horsepower up to 170-280 horsepower, now 320 HP products have also been used. Safety and environmental protection of the exhaust smoke are clear
